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Prediction for CME (2025-10-03T05:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-03T05:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41585/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the east in STEREO A COR2, SOHO LASCO C2/C3, and faintly in GOES CCOR-1 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely related to an M1.5 flare from Active Region 14236 (N14W12) starting around 2025-10-03T05:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Post eruptive arcades are visible starting around 2025-10-03T06:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 171 and 195 imagery. Arrival signature at 2025-10-06T06:35Z generally characterized by slight increase in total magnetic field strength from 4 to 6 nT and stabilizing field components with time/apparent flux rope signature, as well as smoothing in density, velocity, and temperature data.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-10-06T06:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-06T14:00Z (-3.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-10-03T13:17Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 428
Longitude (deg): 12N
Latitude (deg): 3W
Half-angular width (deg): 19

Notes: M1.5 and filament like eruption from AR4236. Based on STEREO-A coronagraph as any associated CME on C2/C3 images not discernible, so Low confidence in fit. TG
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 22.17 hour(s)
Difference: -7.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-10-05T08:25Z

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